Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?

mickey
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Roanoke, VA US
4/24/2024 2:19pm
Kusa wrote:

“Wages in America are among the lowest in the world”


what? 

$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation…

Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff happen.

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2
Mas
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OR US
4/24/2024 8:18pm
Kusa wrote:

“Wages in America are among the lowest in the world”


what? 

mickey wrote:
$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation… Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff...

$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation…

Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff happen.

That's a choice. Minimum wage is $15-17 an hour on the West Coast.

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4
Verbl Kint
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Quezon City PH
4/24/2024 8:36pm
Kusa wrote:

“Wages in America are among the lowest in the world”


what? 

mickey wrote:
$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation… Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff...

$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation…

Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff happen.

Indonesia, which is part of the G20, has a mandated monthly minimum wage of $315 in Jakarta, the most expensive city.  It gets as low as $128 per month in the more remote islands.  Note that businesses often pay lower especially if there's no one doing an audit. 

 

India, also a member of the G20, has a minimum wage in the same ballpark in her big cities and highly urbanized areas. In the more rural states, it can get as low as 6,600 rupees a month, which is less than $80.  The average minimum monthly wage in all of India is $95.

 

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4/24/2024 11:21pm
Kusa wrote:

“Wages in America are among the lowest in the world”


what? 

mickey wrote:
$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation… Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff...

$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation…

Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff happen.

As Verbal Kint said above this is just totally wrong. Even the lowest paid jobs in America are supremely wealthy compared to other G20 countries. 

India, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, China and South Africa are all in the G20. 

If you think minimum wage in those countries is better than the US, your delusional. 

3
Primoz
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4/25/2024 12:05am

But minimum wage only comes into play with manual labour production processes. That's why a lot of carbon manufacturing is off shored. A cnc costs what a cnc costs. And what is the price of electricity going around the world to power those machines? 

That's part of the reason why a lot of stuff can still be made in the "western" world even though minimum wage is much higher. You just gotta automate the heck out of it. 

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4/25/2024 12:48am
Primoz wrote:
But minimum wage only comes into play with manual labour production processes. That's why a lot of carbon manufacturing is off shored. A cnc costs what...

But minimum wage only comes into play with manual labour production processes. That's why a lot of carbon manufacturing is off shored. A cnc costs what a cnc costs. And what is the price of electricity going around the world to power those machines? 

That's part of the reason why a lot of stuff can still be made in the "western" world even though minimum wage is much higher. You just gotta automate the heck out of it. 

Yeah absolutely. 

It also shrinks supply chains, lowers inventory costs, improves turn around and development. 

It's why lugged tubbed frames are so good for small size manufacturers. But also useless for large scale manufacturers. Their cost per unit is OK at high prices, but they really don't scale and get cheaper. 

 

It's why brands like We are One have to reuse their molds for all their models and adjust links, they simply can't afford to have 15+ different moulds while do it in Canada. They found a technological solution of adapting a few molds to do a lot. 

Whereas othe new high end frames now all have a specific front and rear triangle mould for every size, that's very expensive and has to be offset by lower labour costs in china/Taiwan. 

I was purely just addressing the ridiculous claim that US minimum wage is terrible within the context of the G20, it ain't 

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4/25/2024 4:06am Edited Date/Time 4/25/2024 4:07am
Kusa wrote:

“Wages in America are among the lowest in the world”


what? 

mickey wrote:
$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation… Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff...

$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation…

Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff happen.

As Verbal Kint said above this is just totally wrong. Even the lowest paid jobs in America are supremely wealthy compared to other G20 countries.  India...

As Verbal Kint said above this is just totally wrong. Even the lowest paid jobs in America are supremely wealthy compared to other G20 countries. 

India, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, China and South Africa are all in the G20. 

If you think minimum wage in those countries is better than the US, your delusional. 

now do wage/cost of healthcare

 

its not what you earn but what you have after your basic needs are paid 

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1
4/25/2024 7:45am
mickey wrote:
$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation… Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff...

$7.25 per hour, no benefits, at all, an hour from where you live, with no public transportation…

Nowhere else in thr G20 does such shameful stuff happen.

As Verbal Kint said above this is just totally wrong. Even the lowest paid jobs in America are supremely wealthy compared to other G20 countries.  India...

As Verbal Kint said above this is just totally wrong. Even the lowest paid jobs in America are supremely wealthy compared to other G20 countries. 

India, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, China and South Africa are all in the G20. 

If you think minimum wage in those countries is better than the US, your delusional. 

sethimus wrote:

now do wage/cost of healthcare

 

its not what you earn but what you have after your basic needs are paid 

This is too off topic but I'll give one last reply then move on.

If you seriously believe that America is a worse place on minimum wage than south Africa et al you should take a flight to Joburg. Yes America has an enormous poverty rate, however we're not discussing that, were talking minimum wage employment. 

The fact you don't understand is large parts of the G20 don't even have stable water or electricity, let alone health care. The average life expectancy of a male in south Africa is 15 years less than USA (59 vs 74).

A Chinese factory worker is a migrant living in a dormitory 1000km from home working 6 days a week 10+ hour shifts with 1 national holiday where he can go see his children. 

US healthcare sucks, US poverty is just sad, but even then, your god damn lucky to have not been born elsewhere. 

 

Surely SRAM will look at apparel shortly no? It's a big money market for the industry

5
4/25/2024 8:55am
As Verbal Kint said above this is just totally wrong. Even the lowest paid jobs in America are supremely wealthy compared to other G20 countries.  India...

As Verbal Kint said above this is just totally wrong. Even the lowest paid jobs in America are supremely wealthy compared to other G20 countries. 

India, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, China and South Africa are all in the G20. 

If you think minimum wage in those countries is better than the US, your delusional. 

sethimus wrote:

now do wage/cost of healthcare

 

its not what you earn but what you have after your basic needs are paid 

This is too off topic but I'll give one last reply then move on. If you seriously believe that America is a worse place on minimum...

This is too off topic but I'll give one last reply then move on.

If you seriously believe that America is a worse place on minimum wage than south Africa et al you should take a flight to Joburg. Yes America has an enormous poverty rate, however we're not discussing that, were talking minimum wage employment. 

The fact you don't understand is large parts of the G20 don't even have stable water or electricity, let alone health care. The average life expectancy of a male in south Africa is 15 years less than USA (59 vs 74).

A Chinese factory worker is a migrant living in a dormitory 1000km from home working 6 days a week 10+ hour shifts with 1 national holiday where he can go see his children. 

US healthcare sucks, US poverty is just sad, but even then, your god damn lucky to have not been born elsewhere. 

 

Surely SRAM will look at apparel shortly no? It's a big money market for the industry

(not) sorry to keep beating this dead horse, but this comparison gets tricky with exchange rates, inflation, cost of living, etc. So here are some interesting stats: 

Every State except Mississippi has an average take-home consumption rate (the total of all income, government benefits, etc) higher than every single country in Europe, including the Nordic countries. The average income of the lowest quintile in the USA is roughly equal to the 2nd highest quintile in the EU (before Brexit). The average house size in the USA is 2,200 square feet, in Europe its 1,300 square feet. The USA averages 860 cars per 1,000 people, while in Europe, the #1 country for car ownership is Poland, with 761. Most Western Euro countries are at or below 500 (Like Finland, at 577 per 1,000). Americans also eat more meat, work longer hours, work harder (efficiency per hour), travel more, have larger families, etc. 

The USA has lots of problems, yes. Much of the economic advantages Americans enjoy comes from the PetroDollar making imports cheaper, essentially having other countries subsidize the cheap crap we import. Sustaining the PetroDollar requires the USA's military to wreak havoc around the world, its true. We also prop up dictators for access to their natural resources, and on and on. We also have an obesity/health/mental health crisis (probably all diet related). The food is dramatically less healthy and tastes worse. 

However, when it comes to the economic comparisons only, there really isn't a comparison. 

3
4/25/2024 8:57am

@Spomer Is there a forum topic for economics? I love these conversations, whether about government economic policies or the cost of manufacture in different countries, or why unrefined titanium is so expensive. But we've kinda derailed this one. 

5
4/25/2024 4:23pm

Specialized has had pretty much everything on sale for more than a year now..

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jeff.brines
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Grand Junction, CO US
4/26/2024 6:22am Edited Date/Time 4/26/2024 6:23am
gbcoke wrote:
pinkrobe wrote:

They have so much inventory to go through, it's not even funny.

It’ll be interesting to see if they can make it through this without relinquishing majority, or complete, ownership to Merida. 

Eh, I'd be absolutely shocked if Specialized shows any real weakness through this period of time. While its true they have significantly discounted product for ~12 months, they also have ~40 white collar positions open throughout the world. Usually you see companies go on a full hiring freeze if there are real material weaknesses. To add, Id also bet you pull all high dollar racing efforts if cashflow is really bad. 

I think we sincerely underestimate the margins a vertically integrated brand like Specialized has the ability to sell at. While they may not be making a lot right now, I'd bet they are at least selling at their hurdle rate, which is to say they can kick this can down the road for as long as they need to. 

 

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4/26/2024 6:25am

It’ll be interesting to see if they can make it through this without relinquishing majority, or complete, ownership to Merida. 

Specialized bought the 49% ownership back from Merida in the early 2000's.

When profits were increasing 20% or more every quarter from 2005 to 2012, they operated like the Catholic church and bought tons of property all over the world, including their own factories in China, and built a wind tunnel.

They may downsize the workforce, but Specialized has the capital to survive the COVID bubble collapse.

4
matmattmatthew
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Fresh Prince of Bel Air, MD US
4/26/2024 6:55am

I put Rapha in the same category as Kitsbow.  I spend a lot of money on bike, I have no less than 6 bikes right now and enough frames and spare parts to build 5-6 more, I usually travel multiple times a year to ride, Pisgah, Kingdom Trails, Sedona, PNW, 10 day Icelandic mountain bike tour etc.  All that to say, I spend a lot of money on mountain biking.  But when it comes to clothes, I’m not super picky or bougie.  I usually buy clothes when they are on sale or when I see something on the clearance rack at REI.  I don’t really have brand loyalty with clothes the way I do with tires, grips, drivetrains etc.  I probably have 10-15 different brands of riding clothes and I don’t wear matching “kits”, I mix and match brands on nearly every ride.

Maybe I’m in the minority when it comes to riding clothes, but I can’t bring myself to spend more than 75-80 dollars on shorts and 40-50 dollars on a jersey.  I’ll spring for slightly nicer Bibs but even then I don’t spend more than 120-130.

 

7
4/26/2024 7:21am
I put Rapha in the same category as Kitsbow.  I spend a lot of money on bike, I have no less than 6 bikes right now...

I put Rapha in the same category as Kitsbow.  I spend a lot of money on bike, I have no less than 6 bikes right now and enough frames and spare parts to build 5-6 more, I usually travel multiple times a year to ride, Pisgah, Kingdom Trails, Sedona, PNW, 10 day Icelandic mountain bike tour etc.  All that to say, I spend a lot of money on mountain biking.  But when it comes to clothes, I’m not super picky or bougie.  I usually buy clothes when they are on sale or when I see something on the clearance rack at REI.  I don’t really have brand loyalty with clothes the way I do with tires, grips, drivetrains etc.  I probably have 10-15 different brands of riding clothes and I don’t wear matching “kits”, I mix and match brands on nearly every ride.

Maybe I’m in the minority when it comes to riding clothes, but I can’t bring myself to spend more than 75-80 dollars on shorts and 40-50 dollars on a jersey.  I’ll spring for slightly nicer Bibs but even then I don’t spend more than 120-130.

 

Ha, you must not have kids. 

1
matmattmatthew
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279
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Location
Fresh Prince of Bel Air, MD US
4/26/2024 8:08am
I put Rapha in the same category as Kitsbow.  I spend a lot of money on bike, I have no less than 6 bikes right now...

I put Rapha in the same category as Kitsbow.  I spend a lot of money on bike, I have no less than 6 bikes right now and enough frames and spare parts to build 5-6 more, I usually travel multiple times a year to ride, Pisgah, Kingdom Trails, Sedona, PNW, 10 day Icelandic mountain bike tour etc.  All that to say, I spend a lot of money on mountain biking.  But when it comes to clothes, I’m not super picky or bougie.  I usually buy clothes when they are on sale or when I see something on the clearance rack at REI.  I don’t really have brand loyalty with clothes the way I do with tires, grips, drivetrains etc.  I probably have 10-15 different brands of riding clothes and I don’t wear matching “kits”, I mix and match brands on nearly every ride.

Maybe I’m in the minority when it comes to riding clothes, but I can’t bring myself to spend more than 75-80 dollars on shorts and 40-50 dollars on a jersey.  I’ll spring for slightly nicer Bibs but even then I don’t spend more than 120-130.

 

Ha, you must not have kids. 

I have 2.  

2
4/26/2024 8:17am Edited Date/Time 4/27/2024 6:47am
Specialized bought the 49% ownership back from Merida in the early 2000's. When profits were increasing 20% or more every quarter from 2005 to 2012, they...

Specialized bought the 49% ownership back from Merida in the early 2000's.

When profits were increasing 20% or more every quarter from 2005 to 2012, they operated like the Catholic church and bought tons of property all over the world, including their own factories in China, and built a wind tunnel.

They may downsize the workforce, but Specialized has the capital to survive the COVID bubble collapse.

I think we'll be seeing more "right sizing " from both Giant and Specialized in the upcoming years.. The only difference is that the plan got leaked on the Trek side.. Unless some cut future orders before Trek,  which given the Shimano Q1 report,  i suspect that is happening..

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TEAMROBOT
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4/26/2024 8:47am Edited Date/Time 4/26/2024 8:48am

I think we're in an ugly couple years right now due to Covid forecasting, but if I'm Specialized, Trek, or Giant, I'm really bullish about the next decade or three. The world is moving into cities, oftentimes mega cities, and bikes are a powerful way to get around cities, especially now that e-bikes are an option. Cars in cities are an urban planning disaster and cities around the world are scrambling to integrate better bike infrastructure as fast as they can. In addition to that, outdoor recreation continues to be a growing segment across all ages, genders, and demographics and traditional stick and ball sports continue to drop in participation (in western countries at least, I don't know statistics for traditional ball sports in the global south). I think we're going to see year-to-year increases in bike participation for a long, long time. Increases in participation = sales.

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